howfishthink
Model output · scenario

Bluegill in cold muddy water (13 °C): which lure gets eaten

The bluegill model is shown 11 generic lure archetypes, each tried in all eight colours, under one fixed set of conditions. None of them get eaten. The furthest any gets is the deep diver: "Never detected it." The lipless rattle is outside what the Tank models and is listed unranked.

Species
Bluegill
Water temp
13 °C · cold water
Water
Muddy water
Mood
Neutral fish
Depth · light
2 m · noon
Retrieve
0.6 m/s
Metabolism
26%
Eaten
0 / 11

The ranking

Ordered by how far through detect → approach → track → commit each lure got, then by how strongly. Each lure is shown in its best-scoring colour. The verdict, reason and fix are the model's own words; the same text you get in The Fish.

  1. 01
    Deep diver110 mm · wobble 9.0

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Change colour to something that separates from this background, or fish it closer.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  2. 02
    Wakebait120 mm · wobble 8.7

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Change colour to something that separates from this background, or fish it closer.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  3. 03
    Square-bill80 mm · wobble 5.4

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Change colour to something that separates from this background, or fish it closer.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  4. 04
    Medium diver80 mm · wobble 3.8

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Change colour to something that separates from this background, or fish it closer.

    Chartreuseeaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 28Open in The Fish →

  5. 05
    Flat-side80 mm · wobble 1.0

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Add a rattle chamber or more lip area — in water this dirty, displacement beats colour.

    Chartreuseeaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 28Open in The Fish →

  6. 06
    Jerkbait120 mm · wobble 0.8

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Add a rattle chamber or more lip area — in water this dirty, displacement beats colour.

    Chartreuseeaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 28Open in The Fish →

  7. 07
    Trout minnow60 mm · wobble 1.0

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Add a rattle chamber or more lip area — in water this dirty, displacement beats colour.

    Chartreuseeaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 28Open in The Fish →

  8. 08
    Pike bait150 mm · wobble 6.2

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Change colour to something that separates from this background, or fish it closer.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  9. 09
    Micro crank30 mm · wobble 0.1

    Never detected it.

    Not detected

    The fish was too far outside its reaction distance to bother.

    Add a rattle chamber or more lip area — in water this dirty, displacement beats colour.

    Chartreuseeaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 28Open in The Fish →

  10. 10
    Top-heavy fail80 mm · wobble 0.0

    It never got a look.

    Rolled over

    The bait is lying on its side and skating. Fish ignore it because nothing in the water moves like that.

    Move ballast below the centreline until the Tank says it swims.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  11. 11
    No-lip control80 mm · wobble 0.0

    No driven action.

    —

    This lure has no working lip and line tie pair to make it swim on a steady retrieve.

    Add a lip below the line tie, then check the swim test in the Tank.

    Firetigereaten in 0/8 coloursvisual contrast 21Open in The Fish →

  12. —

    Not ranked

    Outside the model

    Its action comes from body shape, which the Tank does not model: it only scores wobble from lip drag, so it reads this bait as having no action. The fish model is never shown a fair version of it, so it is listed here and not ranked.

    Where the model is wrong →Open in the Tank →

Why it came out this way

At 13 °C the model runs a bluegill at 26% of peak metabolism (optimum 24 °C, feeds between 8 and 32 °C), which caps its chase at 0.6 m/s. Every lure here is retrieved at 1.0 m/s, or just under the fish's top chase speed if that is lower: 0.6 m/s in this scenario. The page tests the lure rather than the reel.

Change one thing

The same bluegill, with a single condition changed.

This page is model output, not field data. The species values behind it, including temperatures, prey sizes, preferred action and reaction distance, are working assumptions that have not been calibrated against observations. The lures are generic archetypes, not products. Read where this model is wrong before trusting a ranking, and treat it as a hypothesis to test on the water.