Northern pike in cold muddy water (6 °C), post-front: which lure gets eaten
The northern pike model is shown 11 generic lure archetypes, each tried in all eight colours, under one fixed set of conditions. None of them get eaten. The furthest any gets is the deep diver: "Followed, then refused." The lipless rattle is outside what the Tank models and is listed unranked.
- Species
- Northern pike
- Water temp
- 6 °C · cold water
- Water
- Muddy water
- Mood
- Post-front
- Depth · light
- 2 m · noon
- Retrieve
- 0.6 m/s
- Metabolism
- 24%
- Eaten
- 0 / 11
The ranking
Ordered by how far through detect → approach → track → commit each lure got, then by how strongly. Each lure is shown in its best-scoring colour. The verdict, reason and fix are the model's own words; the same text you get in The Fish.
- 01Deep diver110 mm · wobble 9.0
Followed, then refused.
FollowedToo little action. At 9.0 it barely moves, and a bait that does not move reads as dead.
Loosen it: more lip area, or take out some low ballast.
- 02Wakebait120 mm · wobble 8.7
Followed, then refused.
FollowedToo little action. At 8.7 it barely moves, and a bait that does not move reads as dead.
Loosen it: more lip area, or take out some low ballast.
- 03Pike bait150 mm · wobble 6.2
Followed, then refused.
FollowedToo little action. At 6.2 it barely moves, and a bait that does not move reads as dead.
Loosen it: more lip area, or take out some low ballast.
- 04Jerkbait120 mm · wobble 0.8
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredDetected but not compelling. Wrong size against the forage base, and not enough drive to investigate.
Match the forage: local bait is around 225mm, this is 120mm.
- 05Square-bill80 mm · wobble 5.4
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredAt 80mm this is smaller than anything a northern pike is built to eat (100–350mm).
Go bigger — this reads as not worth the swim.
- 06Medium diver80 mm · wobble 3.8
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredAt 80mm this is smaller than anything a northern pike is built to eat (100–350mm).
Go bigger — this reads as not worth the swim.
- 07Flat-side80 mm · wobble 1.0
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredAt 80mm this is smaller than anything a northern pike is built to eat (100–350mm).
Go bigger — this reads as not worth the swim.
- 08Trout minnow60 mm · wobble 1.0
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredAt 60mm this is smaller than anything a northern pike is built to eat (100–350mm).
Go bigger — this reads as not worth the swim.
- 09Micro crank30 mm · wobble 0.1
Saw it. Did not care.
IgnoredAt 30mm this is smaller than anything a northern pike is built to eat (100–350mm).
Go bigger — this reads as not worth the swim.
- 10Top-heavy fail80 mm · wobble 0.0
It never got a look.
Rolled overThe bait is lying on its side and skating. Fish ignore it because nothing in the water moves like that.
Move ballast below the centreline until the Tank says it swims.
- 11No-lip control80 mm · wobble 0.0
No driven action.
—This lure has no working lip and line tie pair to make it swim on a steady retrieve.
Add a lip below the line tie, then check the swim test in the Tank.
- —Lipless rattle100 mm
Not ranked
Outside the modelIts action comes from body shape, which the Tank does not model: it only scores wobble from lip drag, so it reads this bait as having no action. The fish model is never shown a fair version of it, so it is listed here and not ranked.
Why it came out this way
At 6 °C the model runs a northern pike at 24% of peak metabolism (optimum 18 °C, feeds between 1 and 26 °C), which caps its chase at 0.6 m/s. Every lure here is retrieved at 1.0 m/s, or just under the fish's top chase speed if that is lower: 0.6 m/s in this scenario. The page tests the lure rather than the reel.
- 5 of 11 were seen and ignored because they sit outside the 100–350 mm prey window the model gives a northern pike.
The approach stage and prey size → - 3 of 11 were followed and refused on action: outside the 5–10 wobble range the model gives this species, or too stiff to read as alive.
What decides a lure’s action → - 1 of 11 never swam properly, so the fish model never got a look at them. That is a Tank verdict, the same in every scenario.
How the Tank decides a bait swims → - 1 of 11 were seen and not worth the swim: at 24% metabolism and post-front hunger, the fish's drive to approach is too low for anything but a near-perfect size match.
Why temperature is the master variable →
Change one thing
The same northern pike, with a single condition changed.
This page is model output, not field data. The species values behind it, including temperatures, prey sizes, preferred action and reaction distance, are working assumptions that have not been calibrated against observations. The lures are generic archetypes, not products. Read where this model is wrong before trusting a ranking, and treat it as a hypothesis to test on the water.